By Vernor Rodgers
Find out where it's playing  http://moviefone.com/

Vernor Rodgers' Oscar Picks 2010

The new policy of nominating 10 movies as Best Picture may be seen as a way of beefing up the competition for the Academy Awards. But this year -- and likely in upcoming years -- at least half of the nominated movies can be dismissed as having no chance of earning the big prize.

Of the 2009 crop of Best Picture nods, four of them -- "District 9," "An Education," "The Blind Side" and "A Serious Man" -- likely will just have to settle for being nominated. Three others -- "Inglourious Basterds," "Precious" and "Up" -- can be regarded as dark horses, although "Up" looks to be favored as winning Best Animated Feature instead, in a tough category that includes other legitimate contenders "Fantastic Mr. Fox," "Coraline" and "The Princess and the Frog."

That leaves the big three: "Up in the Air," "The Hurt Locker" and "Avatar."

"Up in the Air" appears to be a critically acclaimed movie that any other year would have dominated. Its three major stars are up for Oscars in the acting categories. It was directed by a young highly regarded second-generation talent, Jason Reitman (son of Ivan). Yet "Up in the Air" may end up with one good prize, Best Adapted Screenplay, and nothing else.

Thus we're down to "Avatar" and "The Hurt Locker." Even this looks like a mismatch with a huge box-office champion like "Avatar" against a movie that get this common response: "The Hurt Locker?" What's that about? It's commercial smash hit against a little-seen art house movie.

The hook here is that the directors of these features -- James Cameron for "Avatar" and Kathryn Bigelow for "The Hurt Locker" -- formerly were married.

So, will this be another Titanic "king of the world" evening for Cameron, or will the ex-wife steal the spotlight?

"The Hurt Locker" has an advantage of destroying the notion a woman cannot direct a taut war drama. And while Cameron can be credited for raising the bar on spectacular special effects, Bigelow deserves praise for building incredible tension in her movie and getting an Academy Award-nominated performance out of Jeremy Renner. Bigelow already has taken the Directors Guild award, and this could turn out to be a night in which "Avatar" collects a lot of technical awards only to see Best Picture go to "The Hurt Locker."

My choice for Best Picture would be "Inglourious Basterds," based on Quentin Tarantino's clever revisionist take on World War II and its memorable characters. While "Avatar" is a visually stunning experience, its story line was predictable and characters not too compelling. "The Hurt Locker" did succeed in showing the terror soldiers face in the Middle East wherein the person wanting to kill you could be any of the civilian bystanders. But although nominated, Renner's role as Williams James, the specialist who defuses roads bombs, really channels Gen. George Patton and other men who function best in war situations.

Based upon story lines that I found unpredictable and riveting, I also would favor "District 9" and "A Serious Man." Both of these movies offered twists I did not see coming.

In acting, three of the four categories already seem cinched.

Best Actor: Jeff Bridges figures to take home his first Oscar for his portrayal of Bad Blake, a burned out, alcoholic country western singer-songwriter who late in life gets a shot at real love but blows it because of his weaknesses, yet emerges with renewed inspiration and outlook on life. Bridges is widely respected and has had a stellar career -- his first of five Academy Award nominations was nearly 40 years ago for "The Last Picture Show." So he also has the groundswell sentiment of honoring not only his "Crazy Heart" performance but for his body of work as well.

Best Actress: This is looking like a tossup between Sandra Bullock in "The Blind Side" and perennial nominee Meryl Streep in "Julie & Julia." Bullock, known for her lightweight comedy roles, has a breakout performance as Leigh Anne Tuohy, a real-life woman who took in and adopted Michael Oher, a traumatized and homeless boy who went on to become a pro football player. It's a showy role for Bullock: a strong-willed woman whose selfless actions lead to both emotional setbacks and triumphs.

Streep has been on the nominated list so many times -- a record 16 nods -- that it is easy to forget she has not brought home the statuette in 28 years, last winning for "Sophie's Choice," her second Academy Award. Her memorable work as chef extraordinaire Julia Child may finally net her that elusive third Oscar.

The likeliest upset prospect in Best Actress could be Gabourey Sidibe in "Precious." She would be my choice. While watching this movie, I sometimes felt as if this was a documentary, that Precious was a real-life rather than fictional person, an obese teen, abused physically and mentally by her mother and sexually by her father, pregnant with her second child. Seemingly in a hopeless situation and sustained by elaborate daydreams, Precious fortunately gains the attention of the right people who can guide her to better prospects.

Best Supporting Actor: Veteran Austria-born actor Christoph Waltz was unknown in the United States until his chilling performance as Col. Hans Landa in "Inglourious Basterds." Tasked to rooting out Jews hiding in France, Landa is cool, calculated and lethal. Never has any man been so menacing just drinking a glass of milk or eating strudel. He is a master psychologist, seen as unwaveringly devoted to his duties. But there is more to him than initially indicated. Christoph probably will walk off with the Oscar here. The likely upset would be Christopher Plummer, playing brilliant author Leo Tolstoy in "The Last Station." It is his first nomination in a long career, and sometimes the Academy likes to reward a veteran actor in his or her first time up as a nominee. But this did not happen in recent years to Alan Alda, nominated for "The Aviator," or Frank Langella, his first nomination ever for "Frost/Nixon."

Best Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique provided the gutsiest, least flattering role of the year as Mary, the abusive mother of Precious. A master at victimization, Mary blames everybody else, and especially Precious, for her impoverished lifestyle. She also is a skilled manipulator and intimidator. In one scene, when a social worker visits, Mary ramps up the charm, acts polite and presents herself as a struggling mom looking in futility for work and devoted to keeping her family together, all while her mother and her daughter stand nearby, too paralyzed by fear to speak up to the social worker and say, hey, this is NOT the way she really is. Later, when Mary finds what's left of her life crumbling, even her wallowing in self-pity cannot generate any sympathy.

Mo'Nique's competition in this category includes Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick in "Up in the Air," Penelope Cruz in "Nine" and Maggie Gyllenhaal in "Crazy Heart." Farmiga, so excellent in sending George Clooney's Ryan Bingham character staggering emotionally in "Up in the Air," may find her chances of winning cancelled out by co-star Kendrick. Cruz, winner of the 2008 Best Supporting Actress, is unlikely to repeat. Gyllenhaal is the best upset possibility based upon guilt voting. There was sentiment among her peers and film critics that Gyllenhaal deserved nominations for her work in "Secretary" and "Sherrybaby," and amends may be made here.

And those left out. There are always solid performances that end up not being nominated. Here are some performances I thought merited Academy consideration.

Liev Schreiber pretty much stole "Taking Woodstock" as Vilma, the transsexual ex-military man who assumes security responsibilities around the hub of the Woodstock location.

Joseph Gordon-Leavitt and Zooey Deschanel clicked as on-off lovers in the clever "(500) Days of Summer."

Isabelle Fuhrman put in one of the creepiest performances of the year as the seemingly stable and gifted Esther in "Orphan" who turns out to be anything but.

Although up for an Oscar this year, Matt Damon could well have been a double nominee, also getting a nod for his work as the bipolar Mark Whitacre in "The Informant!" Whitacre appeared to be the perfect whistleblower in a price-fixing case but was is so affected by his problems the investigation he sparked turns out to be a disaster.

Sam Rockwell plays against himself effectively in "Moon" as a lone worker in a mineral refinery on the moon who soon begins to learn he may not be who he thinks he is.

Young Abigail Breslin continues to prove she is a solid talent with her work as Anna Fitzgerald in the tearjerker "My Sister's Keeper." Anna takes legal action to emancipate herself from being a donor to help keep her leukemia-stricken older sister alive. On the surface it seems like a selfish move, but Breslin brings to the character a lot of depth that even the viewers begin to sympathize with her and then realize Anna's actions are really not selfish at all.

Comedic-horror performances never get recognized by the Academy, which is a shame, especially when you consider Woody Harrelson (also a nominee this year) as the savvy, Twinkie-loving zombie killer in "Zombieland."

Speaking of horror, Katie Featherston is wrenching as the young woman besieged by an unknown spiritual entity in the unnerving "Paranormal Activity."

Finally, Viggo Mortensen gives a heart-rending performance in "The Road" as the father in a post-apocalyptic world desperately trying to find hope and a good life for his son.